Wikileaks: US political interests in water issues

Wikileaks logo

Leaked diplomatic cables from US embassies published to date by Wikileaks give an indication of US political interests in international water issues. These generally relate to transboundary water disputes and terrorism, corruption, political instability, and US business interests.

Transboundary water disputes and terrorism

When US Senator John Kerry spoke to Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari on 16 February 2010, he suggested that “cooperation on counter terrorism with the Indians could lead to Indian compromises on key Pakistani issues such as Kashmir and water use” [1]. Pakistan claims that the Baglihar Dam in the Indian-administered part of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir is obstructing the flow of the Chenab river into their country [2].

A 2006 cable on the bioterror threat in India, quoted experts saying that biological warfare agents would be diluted in municipal water supplies, but could threaten smaller bodies of water such as apartment water tanks, urban water trucks and rural wells [3].

Urban catastrophes: the Wat/San dimension

A lack of clean water and sanitation in burgeoning slums could trigger a complex set of humanitarian crises says a new [forthcoming] paper, Urban Catastrophes: The Wat/San Dimension [1], by the Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) of King’s College London, which keeps an eye on possible crises that could emerge in the not too distant future.

Using plausible but fictitious scenarios set in the slums of Dhaka, capital of Bangladesh, and the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, the paper shows how water scarcity brought on by climate change and large numbers of people in urban areas could lead to water stress, especially in slums, where shortages can stoke conflicts and an outbreak of a new and virulent influenza.

Simultaneously, the new biennial report by UN-HABITAT, the State of the World Cities 2010/2011: Bridging the Urban Divide, notes that around 3.49 billion people – more than half the world’s population – now live in urban areas, of which 827.6 million are slum-dwellers. The global slum population will probably grow by six million each year, pushing the total number to 889 million in another 10 years.

Urbanization can also provoke water-quality problems, leading to outbreaks of waterborne diseases like cholera. An outbreak that began in the slums of Luanda, the Angolan capital, killed over 2,800 people in 2006, when only 66 percent of Angola’s urban population has access to safe drinking water, according to the UN.

Water shortages in slums could open the door to corruption, conflict and an increased risk of disease, setting off a range of complex humanitarian crises. Many of these factors are already evident and operating in slums across the world, the authors of the HFP report note.

Corruption

“As with any valuable good, the provision of clean water and sanitation facilities in slums is an attractive target for corruption, greed, collusion and exploitation,” the HFP researchers pointed out.

In areas where there is a lack of accountability and political oversight, “resulting in collusion between government officials and private-sector water providers”, slum dwellers have to pay a very high price for water, and sanitation falls by the wayside.

The result is that the civil society is weakened and ability of slum dwellers and external players to change the system and help the residents out of poverty is curtailed, the HFP report commented.

Conflict

There is also evidence that water shortages threaten increased violence and conflict, especially in “high-density, multi-ethnic, politically unequal environments of concentrated poverty, as is often found in many slums,” the HFP report said, citing reports of water-related protests and conflicts in Bolivia, Pakistan and India.

Risk of disease

As larger numbers of people move into already crowded areas, they are often forced to live in unacceptably poor sanitary conditions, sometimes even at close quarters with animals, giving rise to opportunities for new disease vectors, noted the report. In slums located in tropical climates, the chances of new forms of diseases evolving are high.

What to do

Randolph Kent, who heads HFP, pointed out that the projections were for 20 to 30 years in the future, “but the idea is to provide enough time to countries to plan ahead”.

He suggested setting up low-tech, cheap service delivery systems – for instance, to provide water, use segmented flexible rubber hoses that can be easily connected and disconnected. The hoses are produced by several independent companies, can be serviced and maintained by unskilled technicians, and offer plenty of design options.

For waste removal, the report suggested an improvement on the traditional chamber pot – use antibacterial plastic buckets that can be fitted with mechanically sealing covers, as on commercial compost bins. The bucket can be carried either by hand or taken by cart to a dumping point like a municipal sewer, then cleaned by hand or at a semi-automatic hot water and bleach station, and delivered to the family for re-use.

[1] The “Urban Catastrophes: The WatSan dimension” report is one of three outputs of a USAID-funded study of key future crisis drivers. The reports will shortly be made public on the HFP website.

Source: IRIN, 23 Mar 2010

Water at core of climate change impacts-UN experts

The main impact of climate change will be on water supplies and the world needs to learn from past cooperation such as over the Indus or Mekong Rivers to help avert future conflicts, experts said on 7 February 2010.

Desertification, flash floods, melting glaciers, heatwaves, cyclones or water-borne diseases such as cholera are among the impacts of global warming inextricably tied to water. And competition for supplies might cause conflicts.

“The main manifestations of rising temperatures…are about water,” said Zafar Adeel, chair of UN-Water which coordinates work on water among 26 U.N. agencies.

“It has an impact on all parts of our life as a society, on natural systems, habitats,” he told Reuters in a telephone interview. Disruptions may threaten farming or fresh water supplies from Africa to the Middle East.

“Therein lies the potential for conflicts,” he said. Shortage of water, such as in Darfur in Sudan, has been a contributing factor to conflict.

But Adeel said that water had often proven a route for cooperation. India and Pakistan have worked to manage the Indus River despite border conflicts and Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia have cooperated in the Mekong River Commission.

“Water is a very good medium (for cooperation). It’s typically an apolitical issue that can be dealt with,” said Adeel, who is also director of the U.N. University’s Canada-based Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-IWEH)

A Meeting of UN-Water Senior Programme Managers was held from 2-4 February 2010 at UNU-IWEH in Hamilton, Canada.

250 Million

Regions likely to become drier because of climate change include Central Asia and northern Africa. Up to 250 million people in Africa could suffer extra stress on water supplies by 2020, according to the U.N. panel of climate experts.

“There are many more examples of successful transboundary cooperation than conflict over water,” said Nikhil Chandavarkar, of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs and Secretary of UN-Water.

“We are trying to take the examples of good cooperation — the Mekong, the Indus are examples. Even where there were hostilities in the surrounding countries the agreements did function,” he told Reuters.

Adeel said that water should have a more central role in debates on food security, peace, climate change and recovery from the financial crisis. “Water is central to each of these debates but typically isn’t seen as such,” he said.

And efforts to combat global warming will themselves put more strains on water because of rival economic demands — such as for irrigation, biofuels or hydropower. Adeel noted efforts to manage water supplies by counting how much water goes into products — from beef to coffee.

One study showed that it took 15,000 litres to produce a pair of blue jeans, he said. Making industries aware of water use could help shift to conservation. He said the world might reach a “millennium goal” of halving the proportion of people without access to safe water by 2015 but was failing in a related target of improving sanitation. About 2.8 billion people lack access to basic sanitation.

Source: Alister Doyle, Reuters, 07 Feb 2010

The popular myth of ‘water wars’

[In March 2009] the UN warned that climate change could spark conflicts over water. But the idea of future ‘water wars’ is a myth, says Wendy Barnaby. [In her essay "Do nations go to war over water?" published in Nature, Barnaby describes how she had to drop the idea of writing a book on "water wars" after speaking to water experts].

Neither Egypt, Israel nor Jordan produce enough water for their needs. But while they have fought wars with each other, it has not been over water, says Barnaby. Instead, areas in need of water import food as a ‘virtual’ boost to water supplies. Tony Allan, a scientist at Kings College London, says more [virtual] water flows into the Middle East embedded in grain each year than down the Nile to Egyptian farmers.

International agreements also help solve water shortages, says Barnaby. Israeli and Palestinian water professionals cooperate through a Joint Water Committee. Similarly, the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan helps diffuse tensions over water. Barnaby argues that although water management will need to adapt in the face of climate change, the basic mechanisms of trade, international agreements and economic development that currently ease water shortages will persist.

Source: SciDev.Net, 25 Mar 2009

Reactions to Barnaby’s essay posted in May 2009 in Nature reveal that not everyone is convinced that “water shortages can and will be resolved through international trade and economic development” and warn that “the potential for water conflict is on the increase”. Unfortunately the full text of the comments, unlike Barnaby’s essay, are only available to subscribers or by pay-per-view (to read all 5 comments would cost non-subscribers US$ 90).

To learn more about water conflict management go to the web site of Oregon State University’s Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation (PWCMT). Project Director Aaron T. Wolf is a world-renowned expert in the field of political conflict and cooperation in transboundary water management.

Is Water Becoming ‘The New Oil’?

“Population, pollution, and climate put the squeeze on potable supplies – and private companies smell a profit. Others ask: Should water be a human right?”

In his article in the May 29, 2008, edition of The Christian Science Monitor, Mark Clayton provides an overview of issues surrounding the looming water crisis and predictions that water, or “blue gold”, will become “the new oil”. Clayton presents only one supporter of water privatisation, Peter Cook, executive director of the US National Association of Water Companies and even he said that water should be “subsidized for those who can’t afford it”. More room is given to three representatives of the “water justice” movement, including Canada’s Maude Barlow.

More interesting is the section on the potential for conflicts over water in Asia especially “China’s keen interest in Tibet’s Himalayan water supplies.[...]. “Himalayan water is particularly sensitive be”cause it supplies the rivers that bring water to more than half a dozen Asian countries. Plans to divert water could cause intense debate”.

Read the full article