Averting a perfect storm of shortages

In a series of articles, BBC correspondents explore the forecast [made in March 2009] by UK chief scientist John Beddington, of a “perfect storm” of food, water and energy shortages in 2030. They also consider what scientists and members of the public can do to help avert a crisis.

As the world’s population grows, competition for food, water and energy will increase. Food prices will rise, more people will go hungry, and migrants will flee the worst-affected regions.

That’s the simple idea at the heart of the warning from John Beddington, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, of a possible crisis in 2030.

Specifically, he points to research indicating that by 2030 “a whole series of events come together”:

• The world’s population will rise from 6bn to 8bn (33%)
• Demand for food will increase by 50%
• Demand for water will increase by 30%
• Demand for energy will increase by 50%

He foresees each problem combining to create a “perfect storm” in which the whole is bigger, and more serious, than the sum of its parts.

[In a March 2009, Beddington told the BBC that there was a growing awareness about climate change and the impending food and energy crises, but not that the water crisis was still not being taken seriously enough].  [In particular he stressed that] the growth of cities will accelerate the depletion of water resources, which in turn may drive more country dwellers to leave the land.

[One of the experts the BBC consulted to react to Beddington's prediction was Prof Jules Pretty of Essex University]. [He said']: “The general premise, that we have a number of critical drivers coming together, is correct. The date 2030 is rhetorical. We don’t know whether things will become critical in 2027 or 2047, no-one has any idea, but within the next generation these things are going to come to pass unless we start doing things differently. That is the urgency of this set of ideas. When governments talk about reducing emissions by X% by 2050, I despair. We need to do it by next week. Humankind has not faced this set of combined challenges ever before.”

Read more: Stephen Mulvey, BBC, 24 Aug 2009

Water Week 2009: Tackling Global Water Challenges, 17-20 Feb 2009, Washington, DC, USA

Water Week is an annual event organised by the World Bank’s Water Anchor and Water Sector Board. This year’s theme is “Tackling Global Water Challenges”, and the discussions will focus on the urgent challenges currently faced by the water community including: adapting to climate change, responding to the food crisis, keeping the momentum for the MDGs, and dealing with the potential impact of the global economic crisis.

Attendance to the Water Week 2009 is by invitation only for external participants.

Read the programme here

The Water Week Event Guide contains links to hundreds of presentations by water experts and practitioners made between 2001-2007.

For more information go to the World Bank site

Wasted Food Is Also Wasted Water

The world’s growing food crisis — which triggered riots and demonstrations in over 30 developing nations early this year — is being aggravated primarily by wastage and overconsumption.

“Obesity is a much bigger problem than undernourishment,” said Professor Jan Lundqvist of the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI).

[...]

Speaking on the sidelines of the Stockholm International Water Conference, Lundqvist told reporters Thursday that “improving water productivity and reducing the quantity of food wasted can enable us to provide a better diet for the poor and enough food for growing populations.”

A study titled “Saving Water” released here argues that while the risk of under-nourishment is reduced with an increasing supply of food — provided access is ensured — the risk of over-eating and wastage is also likely to increase when food becomes more abundant in some societies {see also SIWI press release]

[...]

Meanwhile, a report released by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) says that while each person in Britain drinks, hoses, flushes and washes their way through around 150 litres of water a day, they consume about 30 times as much in “virtual water” embedded in food, clothes and other items — the equivalent of about 58 bathtubs full of water every day.

Titled “UK Water Footprint: The impact of the UK’s food and fibre consumption on global water resources”, the study released here points out that Britain is the world’s sixth largest importer of water [see also WWF-UK press release]

Read more: Thalif Deen, IPS, 21 Aug

Running dry (from the Economist)

Everyone knows industry needs oil. Now people are worrying about water, too.

“WATER is the oil of the 21st century,” declares Andrew Liveris, the chief executive of Dow, a chemical company. Like oil, water is a critical lubricant of the global economy. And as with oil, supplies of water-at least, the clean, easily accessible sort-are coming under enormous strain because of the growing global population and an emerging middle-class in Asia that hankers for the water-intensive life enjoyed by people in the West.

Oil prices have fallen from their recent peaks, but concerns about the availability of freshwater show no sign of abating. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, estimates that global water consumption is doubling every 20 years, which it calls an “unsustainable” rate of growth. Water, unlike oil, has no substitute. Climate change is altering the patterns of freshwater availability in complex ways that can lead to more frequent and severe droughts.

Read more: Economist, 21  Aug 2008

See also: Thalif Deen, Food, Fuel and Water Crises, IPS, 22 Aug 2008