The popular myth of ‘water wars’

[In March 2009] the UN warned that climate change could spark conflicts over water. But the idea of future ‘water wars’ is a myth, says Wendy Barnaby. [In her essay "Do nations go to war over water?" published in Nature, Barnaby describes how she had to drop the idea of writing a book on "water wars" after speaking to water experts].

Neither Egypt, Israel nor Jordan produce enough water for their needs. But while they have fought wars with each other, it has not been over water, says Barnaby. Instead, areas in need of water import food as a ‘virtual’ boost to water supplies. Tony Allan, a scientist at Kings College London, says more [virtual] water flows into the Middle East embedded in grain each year than down the Nile to Egyptian farmers.

International agreements also help solve water shortages, says Barnaby. Israeli and Palestinian water professionals cooperate through a Joint Water Committee. Similarly, the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan helps diffuse tensions over water. Barnaby argues that although water management will need to adapt in the face of climate change, the basic mechanisms of trade, international agreements and economic development that currently ease water shortages will persist.

Source: SciDev.Net, 25 Mar 2009

Reactions to Barnaby’s essay posted in May 2009 in Nature reveal that not everyone is convinced that “water shortages can and will be resolved through international trade and economic development” and warn that “the potential for water conflict is on the increase”. Unfortunately the full text of the comments, unlike Barnaby’s essay, are only available to subscribers or by pay-per-view (to read all 5 comments would cost non-subscribers US$ 90).

To learn more about water conflict management go to the web site of Oregon State University’s Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation (PWCMT). Project Director Aaron T. Wolf is a world-renowned expert in the field of political conflict and cooperation in transboundary water management.