“The drive for dwindling resources, including energy and water, combined with the spread of nuclear weapons technology could make large swaths of the globe ripe for regional conflicts, some of them potentially devastating, according to a report [Global Trends 2025] released by the National Intelligence Council [in November 2008]“, is the conclusion drawn by the Washington Post [Peter Finn and Walter Pincus, Report Sees Nuclear Arms, Scarce Resources as Seeds of Global Instability, 21 Nov 2008].
The report’s executive summary states that the “lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions, particularly for agricultural purposes, and the problem will worsen because of rapid urbanization worldwide and the roughly 1.2 billion persons to be added over the next 20 years. Today, experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into this category by 2025″ [p. viii]. Also, “with water becoming more scarce in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to become more difficult within and between states” [p. x].
Among a number of technology breakthroughs that could play a role by 2025, the report considers that it is probable these would include new clean water technologies “that enable faster and more energy efficient treatment of fresh water and waste water, and desalination of brackish and sea water”, such as “advances in existing technologies such as membrane bioreactors and a range of materials’ substitutions and advances” in nanotechnology”. The drivers for these technology breakthroughs are “new demands resulting from population increases and expectations that climate changes will reduce natural fresh water sources in some areas. Demand will increase for water for domestic use, as well as for agriculture (including new biopharma and biofuel crops) and industry processes”. Key barriers are “cost constraints – both in terms of energy requirements and infrastructure costs” for “both large- and small-scale systems can overcome”. “First movers to develop and deploy cheap energy-efficient clean-water technologies could gain huge geopolitical advantage”. [p. 47]
Among the new countries to be either cropland or freshwater scarce by 2025 “will be Burundi, Colombia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Malawi, Pakistan, and Syria”. “The construction of hydroelectric power stations on major rivers may improve flood control, but it might also cause considerable anxiety to downstream users of the river who expect continued access to water” [p. 51].
“The earliest global effects of climate change, including water stress and scarcity, will begin to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2025″ [p. 56].
National Intelligence Council (2008). Global trends 2025 : a transformed world. Washington, DC, USA, National Intelligence Council. ISBN 978-0-16-081834-9. Download here
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